The End of Empires and the Tenacity of Autocrats

Throughout most of recorded history, the wealth and power of civilizations were determined by the ability of those civilizations to conquer other weaker peoples, annex their lands and extract resources from the conquered territory. In the modern day, the act of empire building is no longer necessary, practical, or realistic because of the destructive capabilities of modern weaponry, the complex network of alliances that exists between nations, and the alternate means by which nations can create wealth and attain global dominance.

By the early 20th century, the British Empire had conquered, administered and exploited one quarter of the world’s population by subjugating weaker and less developed civilizations with their superior organizational skills and military technology. Wars were easily fought and won, and great wealth was reaped. In the 21st century, building such empires in order to create meaningful economic gain for the home country is no longer tenable or logical. Today’s weapons of war are so destructive and deadly that a land conquered by the methods of modern warfare is of little value.

The first signs weapons were growing so powerful as to make empire building obsolete were evident during the second world war (WWII). Unlike any previous war in history, WWII introduced new technologies that allowed for fast-moving vehicles to dominate battlefields, powerful artillery to barrage personnel and property, and high-altitude aircraft to carpet bomb military and civilian targets, relentlessly. The Russian city of Stalingrad endured six months of siege, leaving it a skeleton of its former self. Cities like Dresden and Tokyo were left in total ruins after thousands of allied bombs created firestorms that completely decimated the cities. The final act of military destruction, and the one that ultimately rendered empire building obsolete, was the dropping of two atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, killing hundreds of thousands instantly and turning the cities into nuclear contaminated wastelands. If the logic of empire building is to annex territory and extract resources, then the destruction of infrastructure and decimation of populations wrought by modern means of warfare no longer make empire building realistic. The degree of destruction left in the aftermath of World War II demonstrates that conquering lands in order to enrich the home country is no longer viable.

Since WWII, weaponry has grown more advanced and destructive, and wars, if and when they are fought, will necessarily have to be limited in scope or will result in widespread death and destruction. It is difficult to find a logic that suggests doing this can be profitable. The costs that go into funding the invasion of a nation, rebuilding destroyed infrastructure, all while much of the population, i.e., workforce, has either been killed or fled as refugees, make empire building not only impractical, but also self-defeating.

Post WWII examples of economic success suggest that there is a better method by which a country can grow more powerful than by conquering new lands. Countries can now accumulate economic and political power within their own borders. The free market capitalist system has leveled the playing field, making the success of an economy no longer dependent on the extraction of resources from colonies, but on the degree to which a country is capable of effectively organizing its workforce and industrializing its infrastructure. The economic miracle of South Korea is a perfect example of this phenomenon. Before the Korean war, South Korea was an agrarian society. Following the war, the country was left in utter ruins. Remarkably, as it sought to rebuild after the war, South Korea chose to eschew centuries of Korean philosophy that embraced isolationism and self-reliance and pursued a path of transforming the once peasant society into an industrial powerhouse capable of exporting products to the world. The rapid industrialization, overseen by the dictator Park Chung Hee, launched South Korea on a trajectory of miraculous growth, known today as the Miracle on the Han River. In the 1960’s, the GDP of South Korea grew seven percent every year and produced a dramatic increase in the standard of living as a result of the manufacture and export of basic commodities. Today, South Korea is among the most advanced industrial economies, and one of only a few countries capable of mass producing semiconductors. It is home to some of the biggest tech and auto companies in the world, and has the tenth largest GDP. The Miracle on the Han is testament to the fact that becoming an economic powerhouse in the post-WW II era is achievable without the conquest and extraction of natural resources from foreign lands, or the subjugation of their workforces. To wit, Korea has been able to build a modern industrial infrastructure and marshal its populace to produce a full range of consumer goods that are funneled into international trade networks, thereby producing capital that is reinvested to further develop and expand the economy.  While the desire to become wealthier and more powerful may have prompted countries to conquer and extract resources from foreign territories in the past, technologies borne of the scientific and industrial revolutions and the emergence of world trade have made the only necessary requirements for building a powerful economy the possession of a competent and provident government and a willing workforce and a well-organized populace. Ultimately, these modern economic advances have made the conquest of other peoples impractical and obsolete.

The rise of complex alliances is another factor that makes empire building impractical and unachievable. Ever since WWII, the ideological distinctions between western liberal democracies and authoritarian regimes have divided the world into two opposing factions. In order to draw other nations into their spheres of influence, authoritarian dictatorships exert their influence to match or surpass that of western governments. Likewise, the objective of the west has been to stop the spread of authoritarian tyrannies which deny their citizens’ civil liberties and human rights and promote western-style capitalist liberal democracies. This struggle results in power imbalances such that western society and security may be threatened. No country or territory, regardless of its political or economic significance, is left unscathed by this tacit yet ubiquitous geopolitical standoff. Over the past eighty years, during which this tension between east and west has played out, no major land grabs were met with silence from opposing alliances. The attempt of the Soviets to expand their sphere of influence into Korea in 1950 ended with over 35,000 Americans killed and very little land changing hands, and that gained by the south. Additionally, the Soviet’s attempt to exert influence over Afghanistan in 1979 was met with ten years of brutal fighting, with the American-backed Mujahideen fighters pitted against the Soviet military. This attempt at global expansion also ended in utter failure. Even after the fall of the Soviet Union, the west has spared no cost in its resolve to maintain the tenuous balance of power with the east. The most recent threats to this balance come from three autocrats: Vladimir Putin, Xi Jiping and Kim Jong Un from Russia, China and North Korea, respectively.

On February 24th, 2022, Vladimir Putin announced Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine. Initially, it appeared that Russia would secure a swift and decisive victory. Russia possessed the clear military and economic advantages needed for a successful conquest. However, by August 2022, the invasion was beginning to falter and, in October, the Ukrainians even began retaking land from Russians that they had previously annexed. Putin’s failure to seize Ukraine is contemporary testament to why empire building is no longer practical in the modern era. The continuing geopolitical rivalry between liberal democracies and authoritarian regimes, and the west’s desire to curtail the influence of Russia has resulted in the United States and her western allies providing military hardware, like anti-tank missiles and protective armor, and intelligence to Ukraine. The gift of advanced American technology and western funding has been indispensable in Ukraine’s resistance against the onslaught of Russian tanks and modern armored machinery. The use of modern weapons of war on both sides has also made the war in Ukraine destructive by all available measures. As of August, 2022, The Kyiv School of Economics estimated that the cost to repair Ukraine’s war torn infrastructure was 185 billion dollars. As of the same time, Putin had spent nearly 600 billion dollars on the invasion, with no end of the destruction in sight (Forbes). In essence, Putin is spending ungodly sums of money to conquer a prize in which he has already destroyed the better part of its infrastructure. Although his investment may pay off in the long run (the land will still be there) many safer high reward investments have always been within his grasp. For example, Putin could have pursued the path of South Korean dictator Park Chung Hee who used his absolute power to reshape post-war Korea into a wealthy, industrialized, capitalist consumer economy. If Russia had pursued a transition to an advanced industrialized society like South Korea, or Singapore, Taiwan, and Japan, for that matter, Russia would have vastly improved the material living conditions of the average Russian, and given Putin the kind of geopolitical clout, power and recognition he so desperately desires.  

To be sure, a cursory examination of the vast expanse of human history will bring one to the conclusion that the tried and tested way for a nation to vastly increase its power and prestige is by conquering and subduing other peoples and forcibly extracting wealth in the form of natural resources and labor. However, a closer examination of more recent historical events will reveal that the rules of this age-old business of empire building have been completely rewritten as a result of a number of important developments: weapons of mass destruction, global alliances, and global markets. Sadly, Vladimir Putin is most certainly aware of the destructive nature of modern weapons of war. For whatever reasons, Putin has been unable or unwilling to embark on a path similar to that of Park and, most certainly Putin has seriously underestimated the strength of global alliances. In an epic miscalculation, Putin has proceeded with his futile invasion of Ukraine, using an outdated paradigm. The end result of this immeasurable human horror is yet to be played out. Hopefully, the world is watching as Putin’s inhumane and devastating debacle unfolds. Hopefully other would-be aggressors, like Xi and Kim are also watching and will learn an important lesson before it is too late. The survival of the human species hangs in the balance.

Works Cited

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Ambrose, Tom. “Russia-Ukraine War: Invasion 'Starting to Fail' and Russian Forces Suffering Huge Losses, Says UK – as It Happened.” The Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 11 Aug. 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/aug/11/russia-ukraine-war-first-wheat-shipments-to-leave-next-week-un-to-discuss-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-crisis-live.

Halpert, Madeline. “War Has Caused $108 Billion in Damage to Ukraine's Infrastructure, Study Finds.” Forbes, Forbes Magazine, 2 Aug. 2022, https://www.forbes.com/sites/madelinehalpert/2022/08/02/war-has-caused-108-billion-in-damage-to-ukraines-infrastructure-study-finds/?sh=5386b92b23e5.

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